Simulation-driven comprehensive performance analysis of cold chain logistics for export flowers in emerging economies: Insights from the Ethiopian floriculture industry

Abstract

Background: Growing international trade in floricultural products has increased the importance of cold chain logistics (CCL) for preserving quality, shelf life and export competitiveness. However, conventional evaluation approaches poorly capture the operational, economic and environmental complexities of floriculture cold chains.
Objectives: This study aims to develop an integrated framework for analysing export-flower CCL in an emerging economy, using the Ethiopian floriculture industry context.
Method: A multi-stage design that integrates a literature review, expert evaluation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and discrete event simulation (DES) was adopted, structuring CCL evaluation into hierarchical dimensions, indicators and metrics within the DES model.
Results: Simulation results revealed substantial heterogeneity across growers. Daily throughput ranged from 201 to 4870 boxes and mean process times from 41.85 h to 44.84 h, while shelf-life consumed varied from 13.73 h to 22.55 h. Environmentally, the international flight stage accounted for the highest energy use (97.8%) and emission levels.
Conclusion: Disparities emerged in operational efficiency, responsiveness, quality, economic and environmental performance. Large-scale operations achieved higher throughput and lower cost per box, but not necessarily better environmental outcomes. Quality results, temperature degree-hours and shelf-life consumed varied with temperature management and process stability, underscoring the need for tailored interventions.
Contribution: The study integrates multi-criteria prioritisation with simulation-based system analysis in floriculture exports, offering evidence-based insights for growers, logistics providers, handling agents and policymakers seeking to improve effectiveness, minimise losses and enhance sustainability.