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<article article-type="research-article" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JTSCM</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">2310-8789</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1995-5235</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>AOSIS</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">JTSCM-20-1314</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.4102/jtscm.v20i0.1314</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Original Research</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Analysis of supply chain resilience based on real-world datasets</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1195-5041</contrib-id>
<name>
<surname>Skaf</surname>
<given-names>Ali</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0002-8680-604X</contrib-id>
<name>
<surname>Pallares</surname>
<given-names>Ga&#x00EB;l</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="AF0001"><label>1</label>CESI LINEACT, Mauguio, France</aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1"><bold>Corresponding author:</bold> Ali Skaf, <email xlink:href="askaf@cesi.fr">askaf@cesi.fr</email></corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>31</day><month>08</month><year>2026</year></pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date>
<volume>20</volume>
<elocation-id>1314</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received"><day>09</day><month>12</month><year>2025</year></date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>01</day><month>07</month><year>2026</year></date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>&#x00A9; 2026. The Authors</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<license-p>Licensee: AOSIS. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract>
<sec id="st1">
<title>Background</title>
<p>Supply chain resilience (SCR) is critical for maintaining business continuity and competitive advantage in a global environment increasingly prone to disruptions like natural hazards and geopolitical tensions. However, a significant problem exists in the lack of standardised, data-driven metrics to compare and monitor vulnerabilities across different transport modes, which hinders effective risk mitigation.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st2">
<title>Objectives</title>
<p>This study develops a roadmap for SCR in multimodal transport networks by identifying systemic logistical vulnerabilities. The research focuses on creating dimensionless resilience metrics that can support both real-time operational monitoring and long-term strategic decision-making.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st3">
<title>Method</title>
<p>The research employs a quantitative, data-driven strategy. We analysed six real-world datasets &#x2013; including aviation, maritime, rail, road and an Amazon last-mile delivery case study &#x2013; through a rigorous pipeline of cleaning, contextual enrichment and indicator calculation.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st4">
<title>Results</title>
<p>Findings reveal critical systemic risks: 21&#x0025; of flights experience disruptions, and rail transport faces a 59&#x0025; derailment rate. Navigation errors account for 60&#x0025; of maritime incidents. Furthermore, the case study highlights those orders placed after 17:00 face a 70&#x0025; delay rate, demonstrating a strong correlation between peak-hour traffic and delivery failure.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st5">
<title>Conclusion</title>
<p>The study concludes that understanding the interplay between environmental factors and operational data is essential for proactive resilience.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st6">
<title>Contribution</title>
<p>This article contributes a solid foundation for crisis simulation and strategic management. We recommend that logistics managers implement exact actions, such as adjusting delivery schedules based on temporal traffic density and weather forecasts, to meet resilience goals.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>supply chain resilience</kwd>
<kwd>data analysis</kwd>
<kwd>real-world datasets</kwd>
<kwd>disruption management</kwd>
<kwd>supply chain</kwd>
<kwd>optimisation</kwd>
<kwd>risk mitigation</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group>
<funding-statement><bold>Funding information</bold> This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.</funding-statement>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body>
<sec id="s0001">
<title>Introduction</title>
<p>In today&#x2019;s complex and unpredictable global environment, supply chain resilience (SCR) has become a primary focus for organisations attempting to navigate disruptions ranging from natural disasters and geopolitical tensions to pandemics and cyberattacks. The analysis of SCR is critical for maintaining business continuity and securing a competitive advantage, as it empowers firms to anticipate, absorb and recover from shocks that could otherwise lead to significant operational failure. While the concept of SCR is widely discussed, this study provides industry-specific depth by focusing on multimodal transportation networks &#x2013; including aviation, maritime, rail and road sectors &#x2013; and last-mile delivery operations. By utilising six real-world datasets, this research prepares the reader to understand how data-driven insights can be translated into practical resilience strategies across diverse logistical modules.</p>
<p>Resilience in supply chains involves more than just risk management; it requires a proactive approach to identifying vulnerabilities, adapting to changing conditions and rapidly restoring operations after unexpected events. This often includes strategies such as diversifying suppliers, increasing inventory buffers, enhancing collaboration with partners and investing in flexible logistics networks.</p>
<p>In recent years, data analysis has emerged as a powerful tool for strengthening SCR. By leveraging advanced analytics, machine learning and real-time data streams, organisations can gain deeper visibility into their supply chain operations, detect early warning signs of disruption and make more informed decisions. Data-driven insights enable companies to model potential risks, optimise resource allocation and develop contingency plans tailored to specific scenarios.</p>
<p>The integration of data analysis into supply chain management not only improves responsiveness but also supports continuous improvement. As organisations collect and analyse more data, they can identify patterns, predict future challenges and refine their resilience strategies over time. Ultimately, the combination of robust data analysis and resilient supply chain design empowers businesses to navigate uncertainty and sustain performance in the face of ongoing change.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s0002">
<title>Literature review</title>
<p>Supply chain resilience has become a central focus in both academic research and industry practice, especially in the wake of global disruptions such as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The following detailed review synthesises findings from 20 recent and influential studies, highlighting the evolution, mechanisms, technologies and challenges associated with building resilient supply chains.</p>
<p>Early research established SCR as the ability to anticipate, prepare for, respond to and recover from disruptions, emphasising flexibility, agility, redundancy and collaboration (Belhadi et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0002">2021a</xref>; Kassa et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0012">2023</xref>; Wu, Liu &#x0026; Liang <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0025">2024</xref>; Zamani et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0026">2022</xref>). Over time, the concept has expanded to include adaptability and transformation, with a growing emphasis on digitalisation and data-driven decision-making (Dubey et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0007">2022</xref>; Gupta et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0009">2023b</xref>; Ivanov <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0011">2023</xref>; Zamani et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0026">2022</xref>).</p>
<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) and big data analytics (BDA) are widely recognised as transformative enablers of SCR. Systematic reviews show that AI and BDA support all phases of resilience, that is, readiness, response, recovery and adaptability by enabling real-time risk detection, demand forecasting, scenario simulation and agile decision-making (Beta, Nagaraj &#x0026; Weerasinghe <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0004">2025</xref>; Gupta et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0009">2023b</xref>; Ivanov <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0011">2023</xref>; Singh, Modgil &#x0026; Shore <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0022">2023</xref>; Smyth et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0023">2024</xref>; Zamani et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0026">2022</xref>).</p>
<p>For example, Zamani et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0026">2022</xref>) found that AI and BDA improve SCR by enhancing visibility, responsiveness and adaptability across supply chain phases.</p>
<p>Empirical studies demonstrate that AI-driven transparency, last-mile delivery and personalised solutions for stakeholders are essential for minimising disruption impacts and facilitating agile procurement (Dey et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0006">2023</xref>; Modgil, Singh &#x0026; Hannibal <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0015">2021b</xref>). Artificial intelligence-based multicriteria decision-making frameworks, such as those using fuzzy logic and machine learning, help organisations to identify and implement effective resilience strategies (Beta et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0004">2025</xref>; Kassa et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0012">2023</xref>).</p>
<p>Industry 4.0 technologies &#x2013; including Internet of things (IoT), digital twins and blockchain &#x2013; further enhance SCR by improving visibility, traceability and information sharing (Gupta et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0009">2023b</xref>; Ivanov <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0011">2023</xref>; Riad, Naimi &#x0026; Okar <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0018">2024</xref>). Deep learning and explainable AI have been applied to end-to-end resilience management, enabling accurate disruption risk forecasts and real-time mitigation strategies (Mahdi &#x0026; Sadeghi <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0013">2025</xref>; Riad et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0018">2024</xref>).</p>
<p>Digital intelligence technologies also empower sustainable and adaptive supply networks, as highlighted by Dubey et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0007">2022</xref>). Leadership, organisational culture and employee competencies are essential for successful AI adoption and SCR, particularly in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Kassa et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0012">2023</xref>) showed that leadership drives AI adoption, which in turn enhances agility, risk management and sustainable practices.</p>
<p>Human-centric approaches and internal mechanisms are essential for deriving value from digital transformation (Kassa et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0012">2023</xref>; Shah, Gardas &#x0026; Narwane <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0020">2021</xref>; Singh et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0021">2024</xref>).</p>
<p>In humanitarian supply chains, AI-driven BDA is a significant determinant of agility, resilience, and performance, with organisational practices and information complexity playing key roles (Singh et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0022">2023</xref>). The unique challenges of humanitarian contexts require tailored frameworks and a practice-based view, as traditional commercial models may not fully apply (Singh et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0022">2023</xref>; Wu et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0025">2024</xref>).</p>
<p>Despite the promise of AI and BDA, several challenges persist. These include data quality, integration complexity, cybersecurity, ethical concerns (such as job displacement and privacy) and the need for standardised resilience metrics (Belhadi et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0002">2021a</xref>; Gupta et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0008">2023a</xref>; Modgil et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0014">2021a</xref>; Shah et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0020">2021</xref>; Smyth et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0023">2024</xref>). Reviews also highlight a lack of comprehensive frameworks for digital intelligence application and a need for more empirical studies, especially in emerging markets and under-researched sectors (Ahmed et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0001">2023</xref>; Belhadi et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0003">2021b</xref>; Dubey et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0007">2022</xref>; Mahdi &#x0026; Sadeghi <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0013">2025</xref>).</p>
<p>Recent literature calls for hybrid AI&#x2013;human collaboration, greater transparency through explainable models and integration with other digital technologies (Dubey et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0007">2022</xref>, Mahdi &#x0026; Sadeghi <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0013">2025</xref>).</p>
<p>There is also a need for more research on the social and ethical implications of AI in SCR, as well as on the development of robust, scalable and context-specific resilience frameworks (Dubey et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0007">2022</xref>; Gupta et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0008">2023a</xref>; Mahdi &#x0026; Sadeghi <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0013">2025</xref>; Modgil et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0014">2021a</xref>; Shah et al. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0020">2021</xref>).</p>
<p><xref ref-type="table" rid="T0001">Table 1</xref> presents all the themes along with their key insights and corresponding references.</p>
<table-wrap id="T0001">
<label>TABLE 1</label>
<caption><p>Asummary of key themes and insights with corresponding citations.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left">Theme</th>
<th valign="top" align="left">Key insights</th>
<th valign="top" align="left">Citations</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">AI and BDA for SCR</td>
<td align="left">Enhance visibility, forecasting, adaptability and decision-making</td>
<td align="left">Zamani et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0026">2022</xref>);<break/>Modgil et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0015">2021b</xref>);<break/>Beta et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0004">2025</xref>);<break/>Singh et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0022">2023</xref>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Industry 4.0 and digital technologies</td>
<td align="left">IoT, digital twins, blockchain improve traceability and real-time response</td>
<td align="left">Dey et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0006">2023</xref>);<break/>Gupta et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0009">2023b</xref>);<break/>Smyth et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0023">2024</xref>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Organisational and&#x2215;or Human factors</td>
<td align="left">Leadership, culture and skills drive successful AI adoption</td>
<td align="left">Gupta et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0009">2023b</xref>);<break/>Riad et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0018">2024</xref>);<break/>Ivanov (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0011">2023</xref>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Humanitarian supply chains</td>
<td align="left">AI-BDA key for agility and resilience in disaster contexts</td>
<td align="left">Mahdi and Sadeghi (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0013">2025</xref>);<break/>Singh et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0021">2024</xref>);<break/>Kassa et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0012">2023</xref>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Barriers and research gaps</td>
<td align="left">Data quality, ethics, integration, lack of frameworks</td>
<td align="left">Shah et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0020">2021</xref>);<break/>Singh et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0022">2023</xref>);<break/>Wu et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0025">2024</xref>);<break/>Belhadi et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0002">2021a</xref>);<break/>Modgil et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0014">2021a</xref>);<break/>Smyth et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0023">2024</xref>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Future research directions</td>
<td align="left">Hybrid AI-human, explainable AI, sector-specific studies</td>
<td align="left">Gupta et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0008">2023a</xref>);<break/>Shah et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0020">2021</xref>);<break/>Belhadi et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0003">2021b</xref>);<break/>Ahmed et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0001">2023</xref>);<break/>Dubey et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0007">2022</xref>);<break/>Mahdi and Sadeghi (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0013">2025</xref>)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<fn><p>AI, artificial intelligence; BDA, big data analytics; SCR, supply chain resilience; IoT, Internet of things.</p></fn>
<fn><p>Note: Please see the full reference list of the article, Skaf, A. &#x0026; Pallares G., 2026, &#x2018;Analysis of supply chain resilience based on real-world datasets&#x2019;, <italic>Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management</italic> 20(0), a1314. <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v20i0.1314">https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v20i0.1314</ext-link>, for more information.</p></fn>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<sec id="s20003">
<title>Problem statement</title>
<p>Recent literature recognises AI and BDA as transformative enablers for SCR, supporting phases of readiness, response and recovery. However, a significant gap remains in the practical application of these technologies.</p>
<p>Despite the wealth of available data, there is a persistent lack of standardised resilience metrics and a shortage of comprehensive frameworks to guide organisations in their digital transformation. The core problem addressed in this study is the difficulty of quantifying and comparing vulnerabilities across heterogeneous transport modes. Without robust, scalable and context-specific resilience frameworks, organisations struggle to move beyond a reactive stance. This research seeks to solve this by providing a methodological bridge between raw data collection and actionable, real-time risk mitigation.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s20004">
<title>Purpose of the study</title>
<p>The purpose of this study is to provide a roadmap for the entire research process by establishing a clear view of logistical vulnerabilities. It aims to move beyond theoretical discussion to deliver a robust technical tool, specifically dimensionless metrics, which can be adapted to various supply chain contexts for both long-term strategic planning and real-time operational monitoring.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s20005">
<title>Research objectives</title>
<p>This study pursues the following specific objectives:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>To identify and categorise systemic logistical vulnerabilities across different transport modes (air, sea, rail, road) using large-scale, real-world datasets.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>To develop and propose dimensionless metrics and risk indicators (e.g. resilience index, pollution score, disruption score) to standardise the measurement of resilience.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>To analyse the interplay between environmental factors (such as weather and time of day) and delivery performance through a targeted case study on last-mile logistics.</p></list-item>
</list>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s0006">
<title>Research strategy and methodology</title>
<p>This section details the systematic investigation and the techniques used to interpret relationships among the study&#x2019;s components. To ensure methodological rigour, this research employs a quantitative, data-driven strategy designed to move beyond a mere listing of variables and provide actionable insights for SCR. The methodology follows a three-step pipeline:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>Data collection: Identifying and selecting publicly available, reliable datasets across multiple transport modes.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Data treatment: Performing rigorous cleaning and contextual enrichment, including the addition of spatial and temporal variables to improve analytical depth.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Indicator calculation: Using statistical analysis to interpret relationships among various supply chain components and derive indicators that uncover new information regarding systemic risks.</p></list-item>
</list>
<p>The process is illustrated in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F0001">Figure 1</xref>.</p>
<fig id="F0001">
<label>FIGURE 1</label>
<caption><p>An overview of the data collection and processing pipeline used for multimodal supply chain resilience analysis.</p></caption>
<graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="JTSCM-20-1314-g001.tif"/>
</fig>
<sec id="s20007">
<title>Research design and strategy</title>
<p>This study is categorised as a quantitative survey of data. The strategy is aimed at uncovering new information regarding logistical vulnerabilities by analysing large-scale, real-world datasets across multimodal transport networks. By processing these datasets through a standardised pipeline, the study ensures that the findings correlate directly with the established research objectives.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s20008">
<title>Data collection</title>
<p>The first phase involves the selection of six primary real-world datasets that meet criteria for granularity and analytical relevance. As shown in <xref ref-type="table" rid="T0002">Table 2</xref>, the scope includes:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p><bold>Aviation and rail:</bold> Focused on delays, accidents, and economic impacts in the United States.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Maritime:</bold> Focused on shipping accidents and pollution in the Baltic Sea.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Road and last-mile delivery:</bold> Focused on traffic density, weather impacts, and Amazon delivery schedules.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Global logistics:</bold> Focused on supplier reliability and resilience indices.</p></list-item>
</list>
<table-wrap id="T0002">
<label>TABLE 2</label>
<caption><p>An overview of transport and logistics datasets with corresponding citations.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left">Dataset</th>
<th valign="top" align="left">Parameters</th>
<th valign="top" align="left">Zone</th>
<th valign="top" align="left">Citation</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left" colspan="4"><bold>Rail incidents</bold></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Railroad Accident and Incident Data (2002&#x2013;2022)</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Type of accident<break/>&#x2022; Location<break/>&#x2022; damages<break/>&#x2022; victims</td>
<td align="left">Texas, United States</td>
<td align="left">CoreyChristensen (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0005">2023</xref>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" colspan="4"><bold>Flight delays</bold></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">USA Airline Delay Cause (2003&#x2013;2022)</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Weather<break/>&#x2022; Security<break/>&#x2022; airline<break/>&#x2022; Congestion</td>
<td align="left">10 airlines<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="TFN0001">&#x2020;</xref>, United States</td>
<td align="left">Ryanjt (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0019">2023</xref>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" colspan="4"><bold>Maritime accidents</bold></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">HELCOM &#x2013; Shipping Accidents (2003&#x2013;2023)</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Location<break/>&#x2022; Severity<break/>&#x2022; Pollution<break/>&#x2022; Weather<break/>&#x2022; Vessel type</td>
<td align="left">Baltic Sea</td>
<td align="left">HELCOM (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0010">2023</xref>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" colspan="4"><bold>Road accidents</bold></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">US Accidents (2016&#x2013;2023)</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Severity<break/>&#x2022; Location<break/>&#x2022; Traffic impact<break/>&#x2022; Weather</td>
<td align="left">All states, United States</td>
<td align="left">Moosavi (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0016">2023</xref>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" colspan="4"><bold>Last-mile delivery</bold></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Amazon Delivery Dataset (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0024">2022</xref>)</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Schedules<break/>&#x2022; Statuses<break/>&#x2022; delays<break/>&#x2022; Zones</td>
<td align="left">Global<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="TFN0002">&#x2021;</xref></td>
<td align="left">Suthar (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0024">2023</xref>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" colspan="4"><bold>Logistics KPIs</bold></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Supply Chain Dataset &#x2013; Natasha0786 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0017">2023</xref>)</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Risk scores<break/>&#x2022; Supplier reliability<break/>&#x2022; delivery times</td>
<td align="left">Global<xref ref-type="table-fn" rid="TFN0002">&#x2021;</xref></td>
<td align="left">Natasha0786 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0017">2023</xref>)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<fn><p>Note: Please see the full reference list of the article, Skaf, A. &#x0026; Pallares G., 2026, &#x2018;Analysis of supply chain resilience based on real-world datasets&#x2019;, <italic>Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management</italic> 20(0), a1314. <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v20i0.1314">https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v20i0.1314</ext-link>, for more information.</p></fn>
<fn><p>KPI, key performance indicator.</p></fn>
<fn id="TFN0001"><label>&#x2020;</label><p>, The networks are: Alaska Airlines (AS), Allegiant Air (G4), American Airlines (AA), Delta Air Lines (DL), Frontier Airlines (F9), Hawaiian Airlines (HA), JetBlue Airways (B6), Southwest Airlines (WN), Spirit Airlines (NK), United Airlines (UA);</p></fn>
<fn id="TFN0002"><label>&#x2021;</label><p>, Global (worldwide, across multiple countries and regions).</p></fn>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
<sec id="s20009">
<title>Data treatment and contextual enrichment</title>
<p>To improve knowledge and interpret complex relationships, each dataset undergoes a rigorous treatment process:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p><bold>Data cleaning:</bold> This includes temporal filtering to remove outdated data and the removal of incomplete rows to ensure data quality.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Data validation:</bold> The exclusion of incomplete rows or entries lacking critical spatial-temporal variables, thereby ensuring the integrity of the &#x2018;Resilience Index&#x2019; and other indicators.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Contextual enrichment:</bold> To enhance analytical depth, datasets are enriched with spatial variables (geographic zones) and new temporal variables (hour, day and decade). This step is critical for analysing the interplay between environmental factors &#x2013; such as weather and time of day &#x2013; and logistical disruptions.</p></list-item>
</list>
</sec>
<sec id="s20010">
<title>Calculation of specific indicators</title>
<p>The final step of the methodology is the development of dimensionless metrics. These indicators, summarised in <xref ref-type="table" rid="T0003">Table 3</xref>, act as a &#x2018;robust technical tool&#x2019; for standardising resilience measurement. Key indicators include the resilience index, pollution score and disruption score, which allow for a rational assessment of findings and support final decision-making in strategic management.</p>
<table-wrap id="T0003">
<label>TABLE 3</label>
<caption><p>Risk indicators by transport mode and supply chain component.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left">Component or mode</th>
<th valign="top" align="left">Key indicators</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">Suppliers</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Resilience index<break/>&#x2022; Route risk level<break/>&#x2022; Disruption score</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Air</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Delay rate by cause<break/>&#x2022; Weather<break/>&#x2022; Congestion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Train</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Damage severity<break/>&#x2022; Number of injuries<break/>&#x2022; Hazardous products</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Maritime</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Pollution score<break/>&#x2022; Ship profile score<break/>&#x2022; Risk score</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Amazon deliveries</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Delivery risk combined with temporal and geographic criteria</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
<sec id="s20011">
<title>Ethical considerations</title>
<p>This article followed all ethical standards for research without direct contact with human or animal subjects.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s0012">
<title>Results</title>
<sec id="s20013">
<title>Analysis of systemic vulnerabilities across transport modes</title>
<p>In alignment with the first research objective, this study categorises logistical vulnerabilities across four primary transport modes to identify specific points of systemic failure.</p>
<sec id="s30014">
<title>Aviation sector vulnerabilities</title>
<p>Analysis of 121 million flights (from 2003 to 2022) reveals that 21&#x0025; of flights experienced disruptions. The primary vulnerability is temporal, with flight delays accounting for 90&#x0025; of incidents. The data identify three major systemic bottlenecks: previous aircraft delays (38&#x0025;), airline operations (31&#x0025;) and air traffic control (26&#x0025;). Interestingly, weather (5&#x0025;) and safety (0.2&#x0025;) were found to be minor or exceptional factors, suggesting that aviation resilience is primarily dependent on operational and scheduling efficiency rather than environmental shocks.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s30015">
<title>Maritime sector risks</title>
<p>The maritime dataset (2003&#x2013;2023) highlights a significant human-centric vulnerability. Navigation and maneuvering errors account for 60&#x0025; of all incidents, far outpacing technical failures (6&#x0025;) or fire/explosions (5&#x0025;). These disruptions resulted in nearly 1700 tons of pollution in the Baltic Sea, emphasising the high environmental stakes of maritime logistical failures. This identification resulting from maritime incidents underscores a critical failure in meeting the &#x2018;Environmental&#x2019; goals within the ESG (environment, social and governance) framework. As navigation and maneuvering errors account for 60&#x0025; of these incidents, it is evident that human-centric operational failures are the primary drivers of ecological degradation in this region. Within the context of modern global logistics, adhering to ESG constraints is no longer optional; thus, these findings highlight that maritime SCR must be intrinsically linked to environmental sustainability and corporate responsibility.</p>
<p>To bridge this gap, it is essential to determine the root causes of such pollution through technological innovation. By integrating Industry 4.0 solutions &#x2013; such as AI-driven real-time navigation monitoring and digital twins &#x2013; organisations can proactively mitigate the risks associated with human error, thereby ensuring that maritime strategies are not only resilient but also strictly aligned with ESG-mandated environmental protection standards. This transition from reactive recovery to proactive, technology-enhanced monitoring is vital for maintaining the ecological integrity of sensitive maritime zones such as the Baltic Sea while ensuring long-term operational viability.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s30016">
<title>Rail transport severity</title>
<p>Although rail transport has one of the lowest annual incident rates (approximately 3000), it presents the highest severity in terms of physical and economic impact. Derailments represent 59&#x0025; of rail incidents, followed by collisions at 18&#x0025;. These systemic failures lead to an average of 78 deaths per year and an estimated annual economic loss of over $8 billion in the United States alone.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s30017">
<title>Road infrastructure and traffic density</title>
<p>Road transport experiences the highest frequency of disruptions, with approximately one million incidents annually. The data prove a direct correlation between vulnerability and public domain interaction, particularly during weekday commuting periods where increased traffic density results in an average congestion delay of 5 h per accident.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s20018">
<title>Validation of proposed resilience metrics</title>
<p>To fulfil the second objective, the findings were synthesised into standardised indicators as detailed in <xref ref-type="table" rid="T0004">Table 4</xref>. These metrics &#x2013; such as the incident/vehicle number ratio and frequency by incident type &#x2013; provide the &#x2018;robust technical tool&#x2019; required for cross-modal comparison. For example, the high 20&#x0025; incident/vehicle ratio in rail versus the 0.36&#x0025; in road allows managers to prioritise infrastructure investment where the risk per unit is highest.</p>
<table-wrap id="T0004">
<label>TABLE 4</label>
<caption><p>Incidents per year by transport mode.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left">Mode</th>
<th valign="top" align="left">Vehicle number</th>
<th valign="top" align="left">Incidents per year</th>
<th valign="top" align="left">Incident or vehicle number (&#x0025;)</th>
<th valign="top" align="left">Incident type</th>
<th valign="top" align="center">Frequency (&#x0025;)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left" rowspan="3">Aviation</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="3">214 528</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="3">1 352 410</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="3">630.00</td>
<td align="left">Delays</td>
<td align="center">90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Diverted flight</td>
<td align="center">01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Cancelled flights</td>
<td align="center">09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" rowspan="5">Maritime</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="5">4512</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="5">205</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="5">4.50</td>
<td align="left">Navigation</td>
<td align="center">59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Technical failures</td>
<td align="center">06</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Fire or explosion</td>
<td align="center">05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Pollution</td>
<td align="center">02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Other</td>
<td align="center">28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Road</td>
<td align="left">274 121 147</td>
<td align="left">996 531</td>
<td align="left">0.36</td>
<td align="left">Traffic accident</td>
<td align="center">100</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" rowspan="5">Train</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="5">15 750</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="5">3150</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="5">20.00</td>
<td align="left">Derailment</td>
<td align="center">59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Collision</td>
<td align="center">18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Obstacle on track</td>
<td align="center">03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Fire or breakage</td>
<td align="center">01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Other</td>
<td align="center">19</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
<sec id="s20019">
<title>Geographical mapping of supplier resilience</title>
<p>As observed, each type of transport mode has a variety of incidents with varying prevalence.</p>
<p>In this paragraph, we explore another spatial scale, focusing not on the mode, but on the geographical origin of suppliers. From the dataset (Natasha0786 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CIT0017">2023</xref>), we extract the resilience index and the study identifies spatial vulnerabilities. As illustrated in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F0002">Figure 2</xref>, the analysis reveals a clear divide: Northern Europe, the US and Australia demonstrate high resilience, whereas regions in Africa, Central America and parts of Asia remain more vulnerable to systemic supply chain shocks.</p>
<fig id="F0002">
<label>FIGURE 2</label>
<caption><p>Mapping of supplier resilience index by country.</p></caption>
<graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="JTSCM-20-1314-g002.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec id="s20020">
<title>Case study: Interplay of environmental and temporal factors</title>
<p>The final objective is addressed through the Amazon last-mile delivery case study. The analysis of 43 000 deliveries proves that vulnerabilities are not static but are highly dependent on the interplay of external variables:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p><bold>Temporal factors</bold>: Orders placed after 17:00. face a 70&#x0025; delay rate, compared to significantly higher reliability in morning slots.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Environmental interaction</bold>: A critical correlation exists between weather and traffic quality. In optimal conditions, delay rates fall below 10&#x0025;, but the combination of heavy rain and traffic jams results in a 90&#x0025; delay rate.</p></list-item>
</list>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s0021">
<title>Conclusion</title>
<p>This study addresses a critical gap in SCR: the lack of standardised, data-driven metrics to compare and monitor vulnerabilities across diverse transport modes. By analysing six real-world datasets, we have successfully met our two primary objectives: identifying systemic logistical vulnerabilities and providing a robust technical tool for operational monitoring.</p>
<p>Our findings provide a factual solution to the problem of identifying hidden risks. For instance, the discovery that 21&#x0025; of flights experience disruptions and that 59&#x0025; of rail incidents involve derailments highlights where infrastructure-specific resilience must be prioritised. Furthermore, the maritime data reveal that 60&#x0025; of incidents stem from navigation errors, suggesting that human factors and real-time monitoring remain the most significant points of failure in that sector.</p>
<p>The proposed dimensionless metrics serve as the study&#x2019;s core contribution, offering a scalable method for strategic management and crisis simulation. Instead of merely listing variables, this research demonstrates the interplay between environmental factors and operational success. The Amazon case study, in particular, proves that temporal and weather-related data are predictive of failure, with a 70&#x0025; delay rate for orders placed after 17:00 and a 90&#x0025; delay rate during heavy rain and traffic jams.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s0022">
<title>Recommendations</title>
<p>To address the logistical vulnerabilities identified in this study and fulfil the research purpose of enhancing SCR, the following exact actions are recommended for logistics managers, stakeholders and policymakers:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p><bold>Dynamic last-mile scheduling:</bold> Based on the 70&#x0025; delay rate identified for evening deliveries, organisations should shift high-priority delivery windows to morning slots and adjust late-afternoon schedules to account for peak-hour traffic density.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Proactive weather-based dispatching:</bold> To mitigate the 90&#x0025; delay risk observed during adverse conditions, firms must integrate real-time weather and traffic quality data into their automated dispatching systems to trigger proactive rerouting or scheduling adjustments.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Infrastructure-specific risk prioritisation:</bold> Given that 59&#x0025; of rail incidents are derailments and 21&#x0025; of flights face operational disruptions, stakeholders should prioritise infrastructure maintenance for rail networks and focus aviation resilience efforts on optimising aircraft and airline scheduling.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Technological intervention in maritime navigation:</bold> As navigation errors account for 60&#x0025; of maritime accidents, shipping companies should invest in enhanced real-time navigation monitoring and human-factor training to reduce the environmental impact of pollution incidents.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p><bold>Adoption of standardised resilience metrics:</bold> Organisations should implement the dimensionless metrics proposed in this study &#x2013; specifically the resilience index and disruption score &#x2013; to standardise the monitoring of vulnerabilities across different transport modes and enable cross-modal risk comparison.</p></list-item>
</list>
<p>By implementing these actions, organisations can move beyond a reactive stance and achieve the proactive resilience necessary for maintaining business continuity in an unpredictable global environment.</p>
</sec>
</body>
<back>
<ack>
<title>Acknowledgements</title>
<p>The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude to Rayan Gouadfel and Fabien Arrighi for their valuable contributions to this work during their internship. Their dedication, enthusiasm and assistance in conducting this study were greatly appreciated and contributed meaningfully to the completion of this research.</p>
<sec id="s20023" sec-type="COI-statement">
<title>Competing interests</title>
<p>The authors declare that they have no financial or personal relationships that may have inappropriately influenced them in writing this article.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s20024">
<title>CRediT authorship contribution</title>
<p>Ali Skaf: Conceptualisation, Data curation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Visualisation, Writing &#x2013; original draft, Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing. Ga&#x00EB;l Pallares: Conceptualisation, Methodology, Project administration, Supervision, Validation, Writing &#x2013; original draft, Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing. All authors reviewed the article, contributed to the discussion of results, approved the final version for submission and publication, and take responsibility for the integrity of its findings.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s20025" sec-type="data-availability">
<title>Data availability</title>
<p>Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no new data were created or analysed in this study.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s20026">
<title>Disclaimer</title>
<p>The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and are the product of professional research. They do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any affiliated institution, funder, agency or that of the publisher. The authors are responsible for this article&#x2019;s results, findings and content.</p>
</sec>
</ack>
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<fn><p><bold>How to cite this article:</bold> Skaf, A. &#x0026; Pallares, G., 2026, &#x2018;Analysis of supply chain resilience based on real-world datasets&#x2019;, <italic>Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management</italic> 20(0), a1314. <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v20i0.1314">https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v20i0.1314</ext-link></p></fn>
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